Signals

This week was about two things: the software sector hitting a potential double bottom, and our continued rotation toward the physical layer of AI infrastructure.

IGV is testing its wave (1) support at $82. The entire software sector has been sold indiscriminately on AI disruption fears — the market treating every SaaS company as if ChatGPT will replace their product by next quarter. That's wrong. Snowflake, Datadog, MongoDB — these are the data infrastructure that makes AI workloads possible. They're beneficiaries, not victims.

We trimmed SNOW in AI Build-Out ahead of earnings. Not because the thesis changed, but because the risk/reward into the print is asymmetric the wrong way — expectations are low but positioning is cleaner than last quarter. If they deliver, we reload. If they miss, we buy the real dip.

Meanwhile, we added TSM. The foundry thesis keeps strengthening. Every Rubin rack needs TSMC. The optical routing constraint we've been writing about is becoming consensus — LITE and Coherent are getting attention. But the foundry? Still underappreciated. TSM at 16x forward earnings for the company that manufactures every AI chip on earth. The market is sleeping.

In Derivatives, we sold a cash-secured put on IBIT at $52. Bitcoin's 5-wave from 2022 looks complete per our Weekly Signal framework, and a bear cycle is probable. But at $52, we're happy to own the dip. The premium annualizes at 18%. That's the volatility harvesting engine doing its job.

Big picture: we're in the "sell first, ask later" phase for anything growth-adjacent. The market is punishing good companies alongside bad ones. That creates opportunity for anyone with a framework and patience. Our 3-engine architecture — Volatility Harvesting, Structural Narrative, Tactical Growth — is designed for exactly this environment.

• AI Build-Out
• Derivatives
• Software
• Semiconductors

Today we go live with all five model portfolios. This has been months in the making — from the research dossiers to the Weekly Signal framework to the portfolio strategy books that define every position sizing rule, entry criteria, and risk parameter.

Let me be clear about what this is and what it isn't. This is a research diary. A published record of our investment thinking, our positions, our reasoning. Every subscriber can see exactly what we hold, what we paid, and how it's performing — updated daily. What this is not: individual advice. We don't know your situation, your risk tolerance, or your goals. We publish our process. You observe and decide.

The five portfolios are organized as three functional engines:

Volatility Harvesting (Derivatives): Cash is the position. We sell options premium and take tactical directional bets. The engine that pays us to wait. Currently 89% cash, generating income through puts on names we want to own cheaper.

Structural Narrative (AI Build-Out + Global Tech 50): Long-duration conviction bets. The AI infrastructure thesis mapped to live positions. The ex-US tech portfolio that's returned 62% since 2022. These compound over years, not quarters.

Tactical Growth (Hypergrowth + Global ETFs): Concentrated momentum with options overlay. Macro rotation across 16 ETFs spanning India to Latin America to Bitcoin. The engine that exploits mispricings and timing.

Three engines, five portfolios, one machine. The conservative side of the barbell — fixed income, gold, defensive allocation — is the investor's responsibility. We provide the alpha-seeking component. Later this year, we'll publish conservative portfolio ideas for those who want the full barbell from us.

Every trade from here gets logged in real time on this page. Push notifications fire instantly. The reasoning follows in these commentary entries. Welcome to the process.

• Portfolio Launch
• Strategy
• All Portfolios