AW40 Trading Overlay

How AW40 is trading against broad benchmarks, Rubin's infrastructure cohort, and the software ↔ semis rotation. All three panels normalised to 100 at series start — click a series to toggle visibility.

Updated after each US close. — ← AW40 Index

Panel 1 · Benchmark Cohort

AW40 vs Broad Benchmarks

AW40 composite plotted against Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), S&P 500 (SPY), tech-sector slices (XLK, IGV), semi slices (SMH, SMHX), and Nasdaq structural splits (QTEC Tech, QQXT ex-Tech, QTOP Top-30, QNXT ex-Top-30, TOPT megacap). All normalised to 100 at the first shared trading day.

Panel 2 · Rubin Infrastructure Cohort

AW40 vs Rubin Build-Out + 18 Rubin Sectors

AW40 (demand side) plotted against Rubin composite (supply side) and Rubin's 18 infrastructure sectors. Flip a layer to isolate which part of the build-out is leading or lagging AW40.

Panel 3 · Rotation Signal

Software (IGV) vs Semis (SMH) — Rotation Tracker

Normalised overlay of software (IGV) and semis (SMH), with 20-day rolling correlation below. Semis up / software down = negative correlation window. The snap-back — correlation trending back toward zero or positive while software starts holding on selloff days — is the rotation setup.

20-day rolling correlation today: — — —

What the overlay shows

The AW40 Trading Overlay plots the Agentic Winners 40 against three reference frames at once: the broad benchmarks (S&P 500, Nasdaq-100), the Rubin Build-Out with its sector cohorts, and the software-versus-semis rotation pair (IGV/SMH). Read together they answer one question — is AW40's move its own, or is it the market's? Outperformance against the benchmarks with a rising IGV/SMH ratio marks genuine deployment-side leadership; the same move with a falling ratio is usually beta. Series are rebased inside the selected window, so index levels and prices become one percent scale — the same convention as the compare tool. Research diary, not investment advice.

FAQ · from the current data

Quick answers

What does the AW40 Trading Overlay show?

The Agentic Winners 40 index plotted against three reference frames at once: the broad benchmarks (S&P 500, Nasdaq-100), the Rubin Build-Out index with its sector cohorts, and the software-versus-semiconductors rotation pair. Together they answer one question — is a move in AW40 its own, or just the market’s? All series are rebased inside the selected window, so index levels and prices share one percent scale.

What is the Agentic Winners 40?

The Closelook index of forty listed companies positioned to win from agentic AI applications — the use-layer of the AI trade, as distinct from the build-out layer (Rubin) and the operating layer (the Agentic Ecosystem). Constituents, methodology and daily values live on the AW40 index page.

How current is the overlay?

The index workers recompute daily after the close, and the overlay charts fetch those live series in the browser on each visit. The rotation pair updates on the same cycle. A research diary surface, not investment advice.