— C+

Market X-Ray · Toolbox 6 · Cross-Toolbox Scoring

Market Structure Alert Stack

Four toolboxes — Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner — each raise their own alerts. On their own they're noise. This layer asks the only question that matters: do they agree? It clusters every alert by what it implies for the market and scores each cluster by how many independent tools confirm it — turning dozens of isolated signals into one ranked stack and a single Master Risk Score.

Master Market-Structure Risk 69 high
Top-priority signal Leadership exhaustion Regime: Leadership exhaustion

Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-16

Confirmed clusters 2 ≥2 toolboxes agree
Alert clusters 5 by market implication
Raw alerts 25 across all four tools
Dominant Leadership exhaustion top-priority implication

The stack — ranked, confirmed clusters

1
Leadership exhaustion bearish
59 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 5 alerts
  • Divergence70 QQQ is up over 21d but its vol-adjusted momentum is deteriorating — Nasdaq is higher but its volatility-adjusted momentum is deteriorating — more risk for less directional progress.
  • Divergence69 SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.
  • Divergence63 XLK has risen over 21 days while IGV/XLK has not confirmed (+12.4% gap) — Software is not confirming broad-tech strength.
  • Divergence63 XLK has risen over 63 days while AIQ/XLK has not confirmed (+37.3% gap) — The AI basket is not confirming broad-tech leadership.
  • Divergence61 SMH is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — Semis are higher but on a noisy, low-efficiency path — leadership without clean momentum.
2
Narrowing participation bearish
56 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 2/4 confirm · 6 alerts
  • Beta68 SPXT/SPY: decoupling
  • Divergence62 QQQ has risen over 63 days while QQQE/QQQ has not confirmed (+23.8% gap) — Nasdaq-100 strength is not confirmed by the average Nasdaq stock.
  • Divergence60 SPY has risen over 63 days while RSP/SPY has not confirmed (+15.8% gap) — S&P 500 headline strength is not confirmed by the average (equal-weight) stock.
  • Divergence59 QQQ has risen over 63 days while QNXT/QTOP has not confirmed (+27.5% gap) — The lower 70 Nasdaq-100 names are not confirming the top 30.
  • Divergence57 SPY has risen over 63 days while SPXT/SPY has not confirmed (+19.1% gap) — Non-tech S&P 500 is not keeping pace with the headline.
  • Beta47 IGV/XLK: decoupling — upside-beta collapse, early beta improvement
3
Hidden fragility bearish
50 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 2/4 confirm · 10 alerts
  • Beta83 XSD/SPY: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta59 XSD/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta47 MDY/SPY: neutral — upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta40 SMH/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry
  • Divergence39 SPY is rising over 21d while IWM/SPY upside participation is fading — The S&P is rising but small-caps’ upside (up-day) beta is fading — they are not capturing the advance.
  • Beta37 QNXT/QQQ: neutral — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, early beta improvement
  • Beta34 RSP/SPY: neutral — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta14 QTOP/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry
  • Beta14 SMH/XLK: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance
  • Beta7 QQQE/QQQ: fragile — negative beta asymmetry
4
Broadening participation bullish
49 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 1 alert
  • Breadth68 Participation has expanded rapidly across market-structure proxies — a transition from narrow toward broader risk appetite.
5
Mega-cap concentration bearish
48 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 3 alerts
  • Divergence56 QQQ has risen over 63 days while QQQ/QQQE has not confirmed (+23.8% gap) — Nasdaq gains are concentrating in the largest names.
  • Divergence56 QQQ has risen over 63 days while QTOP/QNXT has not confirmed (+27.5% gap) — The top-30 Nasdaq names are increasingly carrying the index.
  • Divergence54 SPY has risen over 63 days while SPY/RSP has not confirmed (+15.8% gap) — The S&P advance is becoming more dependent on the cap-weighted mega-caps.

How to read it

Every toolbox's alerts are normalised into one schema and mapped to a market implication (narrowing, risk-off, leadership exhaustion, hidden fragility, broadening…). Alerts that imply the same thing form a cluster, scored by the spec blend: base severity (0.25), toolbox confirmation (0.20, how many of the four agree), independence (0.15, distinct evidence types — price vs beta vs breadth vs credit), regime relevance (0.15), persistence (0.10), worsening (0.10) and importance (0.05). A cluster confirmed by three independent tools is a high-conviction read; one tool alone is a watch item. The Master Risk Score tracks the top cluster, lifted when several distinct bearish clusters fire at once.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Built on Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner.