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Market X-Ray · Toolbox 3

Ratio-Quality Decomposition

A rising ratio is ambiguous. IWM/SPY can rise because small-caps led — or because the S&P fell. This decomposes every structural ratio into what the numerator did versus the denominator, and scores how meaningful the move is: numerator-driven and consistent across horizons = high quality; denominator-driven or one-horizon = low quality, mechanically misleading. Quality is reliability, not direction.

Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-16

Avg quality 52/100 how meaningful, mean
Numerator-driven 72.7% of ratios
Misleading up 0 rising on low quality
Real weakness 0 numerator-driven down

Alerts — misleading strength & real weakness

No high-severity ratio-quality alerts right now.

Every ratio — decomposed (21-day)

RatioStateQualityDriverNumDenRatioTF
Credit Breadth HYG/LQD Lagging in rally
39
denominator +1.2% +1.6% -0.3% mixed
Nasdaq-100 Equal-Weight Breadth QQQE/QQQ Strong leadership
62
numerator +7% +3% +3.9% mixed
High-Beta Breadth SPHB/SPLV Strong leadership
66
numerator +9.9% +3.2% +6.6% mixed
S&P 500 Equal-Weight Breadth RSP/SPY Strong leadership
68
numerator +5.3% +1.5% +3.7% mixed
Ex-Mag-7 Breadth XMAG/SPY Strong leadership
69
numerator +5.4% +1.5% +3.8% mixed
Small-Cap Breadth IWM/SPY Strong leadership
69
numerator +5.5% +1.5% +3.9% mixed
Nasdaq Ex-Top-30 Breadth QNXT/QTOP Strong leadership
74
numerator +7.4% +1.4% +6% mixed
Nasdaq Ex-Tech Breadth QQXT/QQQ Lagging in rally
38
denominator +2.3% +3% -0.7% mixed
Ex-Tech S&P Breadth SPXT/SPY Flat
47
numerator +1.7% +1.5% +0.2% mixed
Consumer Risk Breadth XLY/XLP Strong leadership
53
numerator +1.7% +1.1% +0.5% mixed
Cyclical Breadth XLI/XLU Strong leadership
57
numerator +4.9% +2.7% +2.2% mixed
Semiconductor Leadership SMH/XLK Strong leadership
57
numerator +10.7% +5.8% +4.7% mixed
Mid-Cap Breadth MDY/SPY Strong leadership
69
numerator +5.3% +1.5% +3.7% mixed
Software Participation IGV/XLK Absolute weakness
6
denominator -0.4% +5.8% -5.9% mixed
Large Growth vs Value IWF/IWD Absolute weakness
20
denominator -1.1% +4% -4.9% mixed
AI Participation AIQ/XLK Flat
39
numerator +5.9% +5.8% +0.1% mixed
Micro-Cap Breadth IWC/IWM Lagging in rally
40
denominator +3.6% +5.5% -1.7% aligned
Small Growth Breadth IWO/IWN Flat
44
numerator +5.4% +5.3% +0.1% mixed
Financial Risk Breadth KBE/XLU Strong leadership
65
numerator +7.8% +2.7% +4.9% mixed
Extended-Market Breadth VXF/SPY Strong leadership
71
numerator +6.5% +1.5% +4.9% mixed
Nasdaq Tech vs Ex-Tech QTEC/QQXT Strong leadership
73
numerator +11.6% +2.3% +9.2% mixed
Internet Participation FDN/XLK Numerator lag
12
denominator +0.9% +5.8% -4.6% mixed

How to read it

Using log returns, ratio return = numerator return − denominator return, so each leg's contribution is exact. The quality score is the numerator's share of the move scaled by how consistently the ratio points the same way across 1, 21 and 63 days — high when the asset we track is genuinely the story, low when the move is a denominator artifact. Misleading strength = a ratio rising on a denominator collapse; real weakness = a ratio falling because the numerator itself is deteriorating, confirmed across horizons.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Pairs with Breadth-of-Breadth and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.