Market X-Ray · Toolbox 3
Ratio-Quality Decomposition
A rising ratio is ambiguous. IWM/SPY can rise because small-caps led — or because the S&P fell. This decomposes every structural ratio into what the numerator did versus the denominator, and scores how meaningful the move is: numerator-driven and consistent across horizons = high quality; denominator-driven or one-horizon = low quality, mechanically misleading. Quality is reliability, not direction.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-16
Alerts — misleading strength & real weakness
No high-severity ratio-quality alerts right now.
Every ratio — decomposed (21-day)
| Ratio | State | Quality | Driver | Num | Den | Ratio | TF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Breadth HYG/LQD | ▼ Lagging in rally | 39 | denominator | +1.2% | +1.6% | -0.3% | mixed |
| Nasdaq-100 Equal-Weight Breadth QQQE/QQQ | ▲ Strong leadership | 62 | numerator | +7% | +3% | +3.9% | mixed |
| High-Beta Breadth SPHB/SPLV | ▲ Strong leadership | 66 | numerator | +9.9% | +3.2% | +6.6% | mixed |
| S&P 500 Equal-Weight Breadth RSP/SPY | ▲ Strong leadership | 68 | numerator | +5.3% | +1.5% | +3.7% | mixed |
| Ex-Mag-7 Breadth XMAG/SPY | ▲ Strong leadership | 69 | numerator | +5.4% | +1.5% | +3.8% | mixed |
| Small-Cap Breadth IWM/SPY | ▲ Strong leadership | 69 | numerator | +5.5% | +1.5% | +3.9% | mixed |
| Nasdaq Ex-Top-30 Breadth QNXT/QTOP | ▲ Strong leadership | 74 | numerator | +7.4% | +1.4% | +6% | mixed |
| Nasdaq Ex-Tech Breadth QQXT/QQQ | ▼ Lagging in rally | 38 | denominator | +2.3% | +3% | -0.7% | mixed |
| Ex-Tech S&P Breadth SPXT/SPY | ▲ Flat | 47 | numerator | +1.7% | +1.5% | +0.2% | mixed |
| Consumer Risk Breadth XLY/XLP | ▲ Strong leadership | 53 | numerator | +1.7% | +1.1% | +0.5% | mixed |
| Cyclical Breadth XLI/XLU | ▲ Strong leadership | 57 | numerator | +4.9% | +2.7% | +2.2% | mixed |
| Semiconductor Leadership SMH/XLK | ▲ Strong leadership | 57 | numerator | +10.7% | +5.8% | +4.7% | mixed |
| Mid-Cap Breadth MDY/SPY | ▲ Strong leadership | 69 | numerator | +5.3% | +1.5% | +3.7% | mixed |
| Software Participation IGV/XLK | ▼ Absolute weakness | 6 | denominator | -0.4% | +5.8% | -5.9% | mixed |
| Large Growth vs Value IWF/IWD | ▼ Absolute weakness | 20 | denominator | -1.1% | +4% | -4.9% | mixed |
| AI Participation AIQ/XLK | ▲ Flat | 39 | numerator | +5.9% | +5.8% | +0.1% | mixed |
| Micro-Cap Breadth IWC/IWM | ▼ Lagging in rally | 40 | denominator | +3.6% | +5.5% | -1.7% | aligned |
| Small Growth Breadth IWO/IWN | ▲ Flat | 44 | numerator | +5.4% | +5.3% | +0.1% | mixed |
| Financial Risk Breadth KBE/XLU | ▲ Strong leadership | 65 | numerator | +7.8% | +2.7% | +4.9% | mixed |
| Extended-Market Breadth VXF/SPY | ▲ Strong leadership | 71 | numerator | +6.5% | +1.5% | +4.9% | mixed |
| Nasdaq Tech vs Ex-Tech QTEC/QQXT | ▲ Strong leadership | 73 | numerator | +11.6% | +2.3% | +9.2% | mixed |
| Internet Participation FDN/XLK | ▼ Numerator lag | 12 | denominator | +0.9% | +5.8% | -4.6% | mixed |
How to read it
Using log returns, ratio return = numerator return − denominator return, so each leg's contribution is exact. The quality score is the numerator's share of the move scaled by how consistently the ratio points the same way across 1, 21 and 63 days — high when the asset we track is genuinely the story, low when the move is a denominator artifact. Misleading strength = a ratio rising on a denominator collapse; real weakness = a ratio falling because the numerator itself is deteriorating, confirmed across horizons.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Pairs with Breadth-of-Breadth and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.