Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4

Dynamic Divergence Scanner

The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.

Global Divergence Risk 54 moderate

Regime Narrow advance — breadth diverging SPY +1.4% · QQQ +5.8% 21d

Updated daily · data as of 2026-10-06

Active divergences 20 of 26 tracked

Bearish 20 index up, structure not confirming

Bullish 0 index weak, structure improving

New-high non-confirm 17 index high, breadth not

By family

Breadth 68 strong 7/7 active

Concentration 69 strong 3/3 active

Risk appetite 0 normal 0/4 active

Tech internal 68 strong 3/3 active

Beta 59 diverging 4/5 active

Momentum 81 critical 3/4 active

Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters

S&P price-momentum divergence — bearish critical · 88

SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.

21d trend efficiency 13/100 · 63d 13
SPY +1.4% / 21d
Severity 88/100 (critical) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module

Nasdaq lower-70 divergence — bearish critical · 84

QQQ has risen over 21 days while QNXT/QTOP has not confirmed (+13% gap) — The lower 70 Nasdaq-100 names are not confirming the top 30.

QQQ +5.8% vs QNXT/QTOP -6.4% over 21d
Gap +13% · z 1.23 · confirmed 21d & 63d
12d active · Persistent · confirmed by 2 modules
QQQ at a 21d high without QNXT/QTOP confirming

Nasdaq breadth divergence — bearish critical · 83

QQQ has risen over 21 days while QQQE/QQQ has not confirmed (+9.7% gap) — Nasdaq-100 strength is not confirmed by the average Nasdaq stock.

QQQ +5.8% vs QQQE/QQQ -3.6% over 21d
Gap +9.7% · z 1.09 · confirmed 21d & 63d
12d active · Persistent · confirmed by 2 modules
QQQ at a 21d high without QQQE/QQQ confirming

Breadth-momentum divergence — bearish critical · 82

SPY is up over 21d but breadth momentum is rolling over — The S&P is rising while the Breadth-of-Breadth score is deteriorating — participation momentum is rolling over beneath the index.

Breadth score 27/100
Breadth trend deteriorating
SPY +1.4% / 21d
Severity 82/100 (critical) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module

Momentum divergence cluster critical · 81

3 of 4 momentum relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.

3 active divergences
Family score 81/100 (Critical divergence)

Top-30 Nasdaq concentration — bearish strong · 78

QQQ has risen over 21 days while QTOP/QNXT has not confirmed (+13% gap) — The top-30 Nasdaq names are increasingly carrying the index.

QQQ +5.8% vs QTOP/QNXT +6.8% over 21d
Gap +13% · z 1.23 · confirmed 21d & 63d
12d active · Persistent · confirmed by 1 module
QQQ at a 21d high without QTOP/QNXT confirming

Nasdaq concentration — bearish strong · 77

QQQ has risen over 21 days while QQQ/QQQE has not confirmed (+9.7% gap) — Nasdaq gains are concentrating in the largest names.

QQQ +5.8% vs QQQ/QQQE +3.7% over 21d
Gap +9.7% · z 1.09 · confirmed 21d & 63d
12d active · Persistent · confirmed by 1 module
QQQ at a 21d high without QQQ/QQQE confirming

Small-cap divergence — bearish strong · 76

SPY has risen over 63 days while IWM/SPY has not confirmed (+14.2% gap) — Large-cap strength is not confirmed by small-cap participation.

SPY +4.8% vs IWM/SPY -8.3% over 63d
Gap +14.2% · z 1.97 · 63d
0d active · Strong · confirmed by 3 modules
SPY at a 63d high without IWM/SPY confirming

AI divergence — bearish strong · 76

XLK has risen over 21 days while AIQ/XLK has not confirmed (+11.9% gap) — The AI basket is not confirming broad-tech leadership.

XLK +8% vs AIQ/XLK -3.5% over 21d
Gap +11.9% · z 1.19 · confirmed 21d & 63d
13d active · Persistent · confirmed by 1 module
XLK at a 21d high without AIQ/XLK confirming

Concentration divergence cluster strong · 69

3 of 3 concentration relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.

3 active divergences
Family score 69/100 (Strong divergence)

Breadth divergence cluster strong · 68

7 of 7 breadth relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.

7 active divergences
Family score 68/100 (Strong divergence)

Tech internal divergence cluster strong · 68

3 of 3 tech internal relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.

3 active divergences
Family score 68/100 (Strong divergence)

Beta divergence cluster strong · 59

4 of 5 beta relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.

4 active divergences
Family score 59/100 (Diverging)

Every relationship — scanned

Divergence	Dir	Severity	Gap	z	Days	State	Confirm
S&P price-momentum divergence SPY vs SPY momentum	▼ bear	88	—	—	0	Strong	1×
Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP	▼ bear	84	+13%	1.23	12	Persistent · NH	2×
Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ	▼ bear	83	+9.7%	1.09	12	Persistent · NH	2×
Breadth-momentum divergence SPY vs Breadth-of-Breadth	▼ bear	82	—	—	0	Strong	1×
Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT	▼ bear	78	+13%	1.23	12	Persistent · NH	1×
Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE	▼ bear	77	+9.7%	1.09	12	Persistent · NH	1×
Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY	▼ bear	76	+14.2%	1.97	0	Strong · NH	3×
AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK	▼ bear	76	+11.9%	1.19	13	Persistent · NH	1×
Small-cap upside-beta failure SPY vs β IWM/SPY	▼ bear	74	—	—	0	Strong	2×
Semis efficiency divergence SMH vs SMH momentum	▼ bear	70	—	—	0	Strong	1×
Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK	▼ bear	66	+9.7%	0.27	13	Persistent · NH	1×
Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK	▼ bear	63	+11.7%	1.36	0	Emerging · NH	1×
Small-cap downside-beta warning SPY vs β IWM/SPY	▼ bear	63	—	—	0	Active	2×
S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY	▼ bear	61	+9.3%	0.55	0	Worsening · NH	3×
Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY	▼ bear	59	+10.6%	0.71	0	Emerging · NH	2×
S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY	▼ bear	56	+9.8%	0.51	0	Worsening · NH	2×
S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY	▼ bear	55	+8%	0.61	0	Emerging · NH	2×
Semis leadership-exhaustion beta SMH vs β SMH/XLK	▼ bear	53	—	—	0	Active	1×
S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP	▼ bear	51	+9.3%	0.55	0	Worsening · NH	1×
Credit beta failure SPY vs β HYG/SPY	▼ bear	46	—	—	0	Active	1×
Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD	· none	0	+0.6%	-0.1	—	No divergence · NH	—
High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV	· none	0	-7.8%	-1.37	—	No divergence · NH	—
Nasdaq breadth beta failure QQQ vs β QQQE/QQQ	· none	0	—	—	—	No divergence	2×
Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP	· none	0	+1.3%	-0.25	—	No divergence · NH	—
Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU	· none	0	-0.6%	-0.19	—	No divergence · NH	1×
Nasdaq vol-adjusted divergence QQQ vs QQQ momentum	· none	0	—	—	—	No divergence	1×

How to read it

For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.

FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-10-06

Quick answers

What does the Dynamic Divergence Scanner track?

It scans whether the headline index (S&P 500 / Nasdaq-100) is trending one way while the structure beneath it — breadth, credit, small-caps, concentration — trends the other. Each relationship is severity-scored on how unusual the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether other toolboxes agree, then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score.

What is the Global Divergence Risk Score right now?

As of 2026-10-06, the Global Divergence Risk Score is 54, labeled "moderate", in a "Narrow advance — breadth diverging" regime.

How many divergences are currently active?

As of 2026-10-06, 20 divergences are active — 20 bearish (index up, structure not confirming) and 0 bullish (index weak, structure improving).

How is a divergence’s severity scored?

The divergence gap (primary index return minus direction-normalised confirmation return) is z-scored against its own 252-day history. Severity blends that magnitude and historical extremeness with persistence (days active), importance, 21-day/63-day agreement, and how many other toolboxes — Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability — confirm the same read.