Level
How hot — current pressure
49 /100 Contained
Macro Dashboards · Leading Monitor
Structural Inflation
Not a CPI mirror — a leading read on where inflation pressure is heading and whether it is structural or just a transitory shock. 26 FRED series across 7 buckets, separating persistence (wages, breadth, rents, expectations) from the supply shock by construction. Three reads answer the three questions an investor asks.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-08-07
Direction
Heating or cooling — ~3–6m momentum
52 /100 Flat
Character
Structural vs transitory
48 /100 Mixed
Character read
Mixed
Supply pressure not (yet) spreading to breadth/expectations — treat as noise.
Persistence core-0.12
Supply shock+0.31
Breadth / expectations+0.39
Shock spreading?No
"Spreading" is an early-warning nuance; the headline lean is the Character gauge above.
The seven buckets — level and momentum
Core cost pressure (ECI − productivity) 30%
46 → -0.26
Labor tightness 15%
45 → -0.07
Shelter pipeline 15%
44 → +0.27
Median / trimmed + breadth 15%
49 ↑ +0.54
Long-run inflation expectations 10%
60 → +0.17
Supply / import / energy (shock) 10% · shock
54 ↑ +1.04
Margins / financial conditions 5%
59 → +0.41
All 26 indicators — level z and momentum z
| Indicator | Bucket | Level z | Momentum z |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECI wages & salaries, private ECIWAG | cost | -0.21 | -0.62 |
| NFB compensation / hour COMPNFB | cost | -0.20 | -0.36 |
| NFB productivity (inverts) OPHNFB | cost | -0.22 | +0.18 |
| NFB unit labor cost ULCNFB | cost | -0.55 | -0.22 |
| Job openings, total nonfarm JTSJOL | labor | -0.05 | +0.67 |
| Unemployed persons (level) UNEMPLOY | labor | +0.29 | +0.17 |
| Quits rate JTSQUR | labor | -0.78 | -0.03 |
| Hires rate JTSHIR | labor | -1.03 | -0.29 |
| Atlanta Fed wage tracker FRBATLWGT3MMAWMHWGO | labor | -0.47 | -0.87 |
| CPI rent of primary residence CUSR0000SEHA | shelter | -0.68 | +0.38 |
| CPI owners-equivalent rent CUSR0000SEHC | shelter | -0.25 | +0.16 |
| Cleveland median CPI (1m ann) MEDCPIM158SFRBCLE | breadth | +0.15 | +1.75 |
| Cleveland 16% trimmed CPI (1m ann) TRMMEANCPIM158SFRBCLE | breadth | -0.10 | +0.38 |
| Dallas trimmed-mean PCE (1m ann) PCETRIM1M158SFRBDAL | breadth | -0.24 | -0.51 |
| 5y breakeven inflation T5YIE | expectations | +0.45 | -0.37 |
| 10y breakeven inflation T10YIE | expectations | +0.59 | +0.15 |
| 5y5y forward inflation T5YIFR | expectations | +0.76 | +0.88 |
| Cleveland 10y expected inflation EXPINF10YR | expectations | +1.52 | +0.02 |
| WTI crude, 3m change DCOILWTICO | supply | -1.04 | +0.46 |
| Brent crude, 3m change DCOILBRENTEU | supply | -1.04 | +0.94 |
| PPI all commodities PPIACO | supply | +0.95 | +0.82 |
| Import price index, all IR | supply | +1.19 | +1.64 |
| Import prices ex food & fuels IREXFDFLS | supply | +1.51 | +1.33 |
| Chicago Fed NFCI NFCI | margins | +0.46 | +0.20 |
| Adjusted NFCI ANFCI | margins | +0.52 | -0.02 |
| Corporate profits after tax CP | margins | +1.10 | +1.06 |
How to read it
Each indicator is transformed (YoY, 3-month annualised, or level), winsorised, and z-scored against its own ~12-year history. Level is the weighted composite of those z-scores; Direction is the same weights over each indicator's momentum (the change in its reading vs its own history of changes); Character is the persistence core minus the portion of the supply shock not yet confirmed by breadth and expectations. Sub-scores freeze between releases, so a quarterly input holds until its next print.
For information and discussion only — a reading of US macro data, not investment advice or a forecast guarantee. The Character read is an uncalibrated lean pending the planned backtest. Cross-read with the Money Temperature regime.
FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-08-07
Quick answers
What is the current Structural Inflation reading?
As of 2026-08-07, the Level score is 49 of 100 (regime: Contained), Direction reads 52 (Flat), and Character reads 48 (Mixed).
How many indicators feed the Structural Inflation monitor, and how are they grouped?
The monitor combines 26 FRED series across seven buckets, each transformed (year-over-year, three-month annualised, or level), winsorised, and z-scored against its own roughly 12-year history.
Is current inflation pressure structural or transitory, and what does that mean?
Character reads the persistence core (wages, breadth, rents, expectations) against the portion of the supply shock not yet confirmed by breadth and expectations. As of 2026-08-07, the persistence-core z-score is -0.12, the supply-shock z-score is +0.31, and the shock is not currently flagged as spreading.
How often does the Structural Inflation monitor update?
The composite recomputes daily from FRED data after each release. This page bakes the latest build-time snapshot for search and AI crawlers, and the client refreshes against the live API on each visit. Cross-read with Growth & Recession.