Market Structure · Beta Instability

Market X-Ray

The chart can be fine while participation breaks down underneath. The X-Ray measures it directly — upside beta (on up-days), downside beta (on down-days), asymmetry and instability — across the key structure pairs and 343 names in our indices. Detecting the rotation before price makes it obvious.

vs S&P 500 31% losing upside participation, 37% gaining downside fragility

vs Nasdaq-100 36% losing upside participation, 27% gaining downside fragility

Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-16 · Participation fragile — fragility rising beneath the surface

Latest read The Generals Have Followed Their Troops — the breadth warning becomes price confirmation →

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The pairs we watch — full scores

Each pair, decomposed on up-days and down-days separately. These are the published "Troops Leaving Before the Generals" set — now confirmed by price in "The Generals Have Followed Their Troops".

SMH / QQQ fragile

Semiconductor leadership vs Nasdaq

Upside β1.78

Downside β1.93

Asymmetry-0.15

Particip.0.92

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	1.62	1.71	1.78	1.67
down β	1.92	1.86	1.93	1.82

β-z +1.56instab 40 partic 70fragil 99

downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetry

XSD / QQQ fragile

Equal-weight semis vs Nasdaq

Upside β1.83

Downside β2.07

Asymmetry-0.24

Particip.0.88

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	1.59	1.62	1.83	1.84
down β	2.36	2.32	2.07	1.98

β-z +1.63instab 59 partic 90fragil 100

downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetryupside participation deteriorating (sharp)downside-beta expansion (sharp)

XSD / SPY fragile

Equal-weight semis vs market

Upside β2.22

Downside β2.40

Asymmetry-0.18

Particip.0.93

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	2.75	1.98	2.22	2.39
down β	3.13	2.85	2.40	2.54

β-z +1.67instab 83 partic 65fragil 89

downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetryupside participation deteriorating (sharp)downside-beta expansion (sharp)

IWM / SPY neutral

Small-cap participation

Upside β1.21

Downside β1.11

Asymmetry+0.11

Particip.1.10

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	1.03	1.12	1.21	1.41
down β	1.19	1.13	1.11	1.21

β-z -0.31instab 8 partic 36fragil 40

RSP / SPY neutral

S&P 500 equal-weight participation

Upside β0.75

Downside β0.78

Asymmetry-0.03

Particip.0.96

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	0.50	0.74	0.75	0.79
down β	0.78	0.73	0.78	0.76

β-z -1.41instab 34 partic 19fragil 49

upside-beta collapsenegative beta asymmetryupside participation deteriorating (sharp)

HYG / SPY neutral

Credit confirmation

Upside β0.27

Downside β0.22

Asymmetry+0.05

Particip.1.24

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	0.24	0.28	0.27	0.29
down β	0.20	0.22	0.22	0.18

β-z +1.00instab 24 partic 45fragil 54

ARKK / QQQ healthy-leader

Speculative-growth appetite

Upside β1.52

Downside β1.51

Asymmetry+0.01

Particip.1.00

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	1.37	1.42	1.52	1.45
down β	1.50	1.38	1.51	1.74

β-z -1.95instab 55 partic 64fragil 36

Participation breadth — by index (vs S&P 500)

lake 1641 names 32% losing upside participation, 36% gaining downside fragility rubin 101 names 14% losing upside participation, 64% gaining downside fragility halo 100 names 23% losing upside participation, 38% gaining downside fragility agentic 99 names 56% losing upside participation, 41% gaining downside fragility euro-ai 65 names 17% losing upside participation, 32% gaining downside fragility etfs 13 names 23% losing upside participation, 31% gaining downside fragility

Want a specific name? Open the X-Ray Directory → — search, sort and open any of 2019 names on the full toolbox vs SPY & Nasdaq.

How to read it

For each pair (asset vs benchmark), returns are split into the benchmark's up-days and down-days. Upside β is participation in rallies; downside β is vulnerability in selloffs; asymmetry (up − down) and the participation ratio (up ÷ down) say whether an asset captures more upside than downside. Read across 21 / 63 / 126 / 252 days: a sharp drop at the short horizon while the long looks fine is the early warning.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Scores are relative and descriptive. Cross-read with the Money Temperature regime.