STP · Index 4 of 4 · AI Build-Out Family · monthly cadence · 12 tickers · 4 layers · cycle-stage detector
Semicap / Test Pulse
Semiconductor equipment is the upstream-of-upstream layer. When ASML, AMAT, Lam, Tokyo Electron, and the test-and-packaging names build order books, fab capacity follows 6-12 months later, silicon a quarter after that, and the products that depend on it a quarter after that. STP tracks the four layers of the equipment cycle and surfaces the cycle stage from the gap between front-end capex and back-end test.
Back-end Test layer running 20+ points above Front-end Capex. Demand is outrunning capacity — finished-die testing scaling while new fab equipment slows. Historically a late-cycle pattern that precedes pricing pressure.
6 points · since 2026-05
Layer breakdown
Each layer captures one stage of the semicap/test value chain. Score is the percentile rank of average 21d return vs the layer's rolling 24-month history (first months use a deterministic heuristic). Weights front-load front-end capex because it leads the rest by 6-12 months.
ASML (EUV/DUV lithography monopoly), Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron. The wafer-processing capex layer — when these names build order books, fab capacity follows 6-12 months later.
KLA (process control inspection leader), Onto Innovation, Camtek. Metrology and wafer inspection — the quality-gate layer that scales with wafer starts.
Advantest (memory + SoC test, HBM leader), Teradyne (SoC + robotics), Cohu (handlers). Test equipment for finished die — moves later in the cycle as silicon comes out the front-end.
BE Semiconductor (hybrid bonding, HBM4 critical), ASMPT, Disco (wafer dicing). The CoWoS / chiplet / HBM-stack assembly layer — the new bottleneck as die sizes plateau and integration moves to packaging.
Order side — Japan equipment billings SEAJ · three-month average · ¥
Japan-based equipment makers — Tokyo Electron, Screen, Kokusai, Disco and others — billed ¥597.9bn in August 2026 (preliminary, three-month average): +47.4% on a year earlier, +7.5% on the month before, +13.6% over three months. Billings are what the machine makers invoice as tools ship — the hard-number check on the share prices above.
| Month | Billings | m/m | y/y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 · prelim | ¥597.9bn | +7.5% | +47.4% | |
| July 2026 | ¥556.2bn | +8.3% | +35.4% | |
| June 2026 | ¥513.6bn | −2.4% | +26.9% | |
| May 2026 | ¥526.4bn | +3.2% | +17.9% | |
| April 2026 | ¥510.2bn | +6.2% | +14.1% | |
| March 2026 | ¥480.2bn | +13.5% | +11.1% | |
| February 2026 | ¥423.1bn | −1.0% | +2.7% | |
| January 2026 | ¥427.5bn | +0.9% | +2.6% | |
| December 2025 | ¥423.5bn | +0.7% | −4.5% | |
| November 2025 | ¥420.7bn | +1.6% | +3.7% | |
| October 2025 | ¥413.9bn | −2.5% | +7.3% | |
| September 2025 | ¥424.6bn | +4.6% | +14.9% |
Source: SEAJ Express Report, published around the 21st of the following month; preliminary figures are revised a month later. Billings, not bookings — SEAJ publishes no order figures.
ASML — the lithography gate quarterly · next report 14 October
Every leading-edge chip factory needs ASML's lithography machines, so its outlook is the first company-level read on next year's capacity. In July ASML raised its 2026 sales outlook to €43.0bn–€45.0bn, from €34.0bn–€39.0bn in January, and guided the third quarter to €11.0bn–€12.0bn. It plans to raise its low-NA EUV capacity of around 65 systems in 2026 by 30% for 2027 and its DUV immersion capacity of around 130 by 30%, and is studying another 30% for 2028.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | New systems sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 · guided | €11.0bn–€12.0bn | 55–57% | — |
| Q2 2026 | €9.3bn | 54.0% | 86 |
| Q1 2026 | €8.8bn | 53.0% | 67 |
| Q4 2025 | €9.7bn | 52.2% | — |
Orders: ASML stopped publishing quarterly bookings in 2026. The last figure was €13.2bn in Q4 2025 (€7.4bn EUV); the backlog stood at €38.8bn at the end of 2025 (€25.5bn EUV) and is next reported with the full-year results. Source: ASML quarterly results.
Per-ticker breakdown 13 tickers · sorted by layer · 21d return
| Ticker | Company | Specialty | Layer | 21d return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8035.T | Tokyo Electron | Coater / etch / cleaning | Front-end Capex | +21.0% |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | Deposition / etch / inspection | Front-end Capex | +16.6% |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Etch / deposition | Front-end Capex | +8.5% |
| ASML | ASML | EUV / DUV lithography (monopoly) | Front-end Capex | +7.0% |
| ONTO | Onto Innovation | Metrology / lithography software | Front-end Test / Inspection | +17.1% |
| KLAC | KLA Corp | Process control inspection (leader) | Front-end Test / Inspection | +6.4% |
| CAMT | Camtek | Advanced-packaging wafer inspection | Front-end Test / Inspection | +6.1% |
| COHU | Cohu | Test handlers + contactors | Back-end Test | +44.1% |
| 6857.T | Advantest | Memory + SoC test (HBM leader) | Back-end Test | +29.1% |
| TER | Teradyne | SoC test + robotics | Back-end Test | +20.5% |
| 6146.T | Disco | Wafer dicing + grinding | Advanced Packaging | +19.1% |
| 0522.HK | ASMPT | Advanced packaging + bonders | Advanced Packaging | +14.7% |
| BESI.AS | BE Semiconductor | Hybrid bonding (HBM4 critical) | Advanced Packaging | -8.1% |
AI Build-Out Index Family 4 indices · supply-side AI hardware tracking
CCST · TAISP · MHP · STP — four independent indices, each with its own data source, equity basket, and equity-gap signal. Read them together: when one moves before the others, that's the rotation signal. (Agentic-demand-side tracking lives in the separate Agentic Demand Index.)
AI Build-Out Index — equal-weighted average of the 4 live indices below (4 of 4 reporting). Each index counts once; one with no current reading drops out rather than being imputed.
- CCSTCompute Spot Tightness54.0 / 100 NeutralSpot GPU rental + cross-gen ratiosDaily scrape · biweekly composite
Spot market for GPU compute — rental rates, availability, and cross-generation price ratios (H100/B200, A100/H100). High = compute scarce.
Open index → - TAISPTaiwan AI Supply Pulse95.0 / 100 TightTaiwan ODM + OSAT + foundry revenueMonthly · TWSE filings
Monthly revenue from 25 Taiwan-listed AI hardware suppliers across 5 layers — AI server ODMs, OSAT, foundry, substrate, cooling. Audited filings, no analyst noise.
Open index → - MHPMemory / HBM Pulse53.0 / 100 NeutralHBM Big-3 supply + equipment + packagingMonthly · 21st
The HBM bottleneck that gates AI accelerator shipments. SK Hynix / Samsung / Micron — when they sell out, the AI capex ceiling is set. Lead-vs-coincident divergence signal 2-4 months ahead of revenue print.
Open index → - STP You are hereSemicap / Test Pulse61.0 / 100 NeutralEquipment cycle gating silicon supplyMonthly · 18th
Equipment cycle that gates silicon supply. ASML / AMAT / LRCX / Tokyo Electron order books → fab capacity 6-12 months later. Cycle-stage detector reads front-end vs back-end gap.
Methodology
STP is the fourth and final of the Closelooknet AI Build-Out Index Family — a 4-index suite tracking the AI hardware supply chain (Compute Spot Tightness · Taiwan AI Supply Pulse · Memory/HBM Pulse · Semicap/Test Pulse). Each index has its own data sources, equity basket, and equity-gap signal. Closelooknet Agentic Usage Pulse (AUP), tracking demand-side AI adoption, is a separate standalone index in its own track.
Equity layer: 21d returns from the Closelooknet Lake API for 12 semicap/test/packaging tickers across 4 layers. Per-layer score = percentile rank of average 21d return vs rolling 24-month history. Composite = layer-weighted blend: Front-end Capex 35% (the leading layer), Front-end Test/Inspection 25%, Back-end Test 20%, Advanced Packaging 20%.
Cycle-stage detector reads the gap between Front-end Capex and Back-end Test scores. Early cycle (bullish): FE ≥ BE+20 = capacity built ahead of demand. Mid cycle (aligned): within ±20 pts and both expansionary. Late cycle (warning): BE ≥ FE+20 = demand outrunning capacity, historically precedes pricing pressure. Contraction: both layers <40.
Order side (MVP2, October 2026): SEAJ's monthly billings of Japan-based semiconductor equipment makers, three-month average in yen, loaded automatically after each release (~21st of the following month). It is shown next to the composite, not blended into it — billings arrive monthly and a month late, the share-price layers daily. SEMI's North America billings, the other series planned here, are no longer published monthly (subscription only since February 2022), so that slot stays empty. ASML stopped publishing quarterly orders in 2026 and now reports its order backlog once a year; its results and outlook are tracked separately below.
Index reading is a diary entry on our process. Closelooknet publishes research, not investment advice.