Evidence
Across 168 historical occurrences, the SMH / SOXX / XLK basket returned on average 9.0% over the next 63 trading days (median 6.6%), against QQQ — an excess of 2.5%. The forward window was positive 65.5% of the time.
Interpretation
On this evidence the setup historically added excess return versus QQQ at the 63-day horizon.
Metrics by holding period
| Holding (days) | n | Avg | Median | Win rate | Excess | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 168 | 2.7% | 1.9% | 61.3% | 0.4% | -15.7% |
| 63 | 168 | 9.0% | 6.6% | 65.5% | 2.5% | -21.7% |
| 126 | 162 | 18.0% | 15.7% | 76.5% | 5.1% | -24.6% |
Validation (63-day) — FAIL
| Stage | Result |
|---|---|
| training | ✅ passed |
| validation | ✅ passed |
| oos | ✅ passed |
| random-entry null | ❌ inside the null band · 95% CI [6.2%, 10.5%] |
| ±15% robustness | ✅ holds · edge holds same-sign under all ±15% parameter shifts |
Considerations
Ways investors commonly express a view like this include broad sector/theme ETFs (e.g. SMH). Position sizing, entry timing and risk control remain the investor's own decisions.
Reality check
n=168. A historical observation, not a prediction or recommendation; regimes change and past behaviour need not repeat.