Meta, Tesla, IBM, SAP, Lam Report; Kospi Rebounds 2.6%
Big Tech Earnings — Seoul buys back the chip sell-off as Tesla, Meta, IBM, SAP and Lam Research report tonight
Tuesday belonged to everything except tech: Dow +1.0%, small caps +1.7%, chips lower again and QQQ still under 720. This morning the Kospi rebounds 2.6% with SK Hynix +4.9% — hours before the heaviest reporting night of the quarter. TSMC's earnings window closed 0.7% above entry: flat.
In this edition
The Morning 10 Wed, Oct 21, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET
The ten points
Tuesday was the broadest session in weeks, and tech sat it out. The Dow rose 1.0% to 52,496 and the Russell 2000 small-cap index jumped 1.7% — while the S&P 500 added just 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite closed flat. The chip index slipped 0.3% to 11,284, giving back part of Monday's bounce, and the Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ eased 0.1% to 717.63, still below both the round 720 and the broken support line at 728.95.
This morning Seoul reversed itself again. The Kospi rose 2.6% in afternoon trade to about 5,699, taking back more than half of Tuesday's 4% fall; SK Hynix gained 4.9% and Samsung 4.5% — the same names that led the selling 24 hours earlier. The Nikkei added 1.1%, Taiwan 0.9%; Hong Kong slipped 0.4%. Nasdaq futures trade 0.7% above Tuesday's settle.
The reason for the hesitation on both sides of the Pacific reports tonight: Tesla, Meta, IBM, SAP and Lam Research all publish results after the US close — the heaviest reporting night of the quarter so far, touching the AI trade from four directions at once. And TSMC's two-week earnings test ended at Tuesday's close almost exactly where it started: +0.7% from the entry price, inside the band we score as flat. A record quarter the market has so far declined to pay for.
- Tuesday's shape — Dow +1.0%, small caps +1.7%, chips −0.3%: the rally widened and tech sat out
- Asia — Seoul buys back what it sold: Kospi +2.6%, SK Hynix +4.9%, Samsung +4.5%
- Five prints after tonight's close — Tesla, Meta, IBM, SAP, Lam Research
- TSMC — a record quarter, scored flat: +0.7% over two weeks
- Sector rotation — Discretionary, Health Care and Financials lead the week; Tech and Utilities at the bottom
- Semis vs software — chips slipped while software and cloud bounced
- Our AI indices — Rubin −1.5% on the day and −10.2% on the week; the products index is up through the storm
- Under the surface — low-vol beats momentum, vol eases, Money Temperature at 49
- Dollar and gold both softer; long bonds bought — TLT +0.8%
- Outside view — Dan Niles
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Tuesday's shape — Dow +1.0%, small caps +1.7%, chips −0.3%: the rally widened and tech sat out
StructureQQQ
- What
- The Dow gained 1.0% to 52,495.88 and the Russell 2000 jumped 1.7% to 2,773.42 — both outran the S&P 500 (+0.3% to 7,712.57) and the Nasdaq Composite (flat at 26,424.82) by a wide margin. That is the opposite of the narrow mega-cap leadership that carried most of this year. The laggards were the year's leaders: the Philadelphia chip index slipped 0.3% to 11,283.81, giving back part of Monday's streak-ending bounce, and QQQ eased 0.1% to 717.63. The broken support line at 728.95 is still overhead; the September low at 704.54 is still the floor that matters.
- If
- QQQ closes back above 720 today — futures point that way at the open
- Why
- a rally that broadens while its leaders rest can be healthy rotation, but only if the leaders stop falling; chips lower on a Dow +1% day means the AI complex is still being distributed, not rotated within
- Then
- the QQQ page carries the chart and the levels
-
Asia — Seoul buys back what it sold: Kospi +2.6%, SK Hynix +4.9%, Samsung +4.5%
Context- What
- The Kospi rose 2.6% in Wednesday afternoon trade to about 5,699, recovering more than half of Tuesday's 4%-plus fall. SK Hynix gained 4.9% to 1,283,000 won and Samsung Electronics 4.5% to 221,000 won — the two names that led Tuesday's selling are leading Wednesday's buying, a full round trip in 48 hours. Tokyo followed: the Nikkei added 1.1% to about 64,790. Taiwan's Taiex rose 0.9%; Hong Kong slipped 0.4%. Nasdaq futures trade 0.7% above Tuesday's settle, S&P futures 0.3% higher. Two sessions, two opposite verdicts from the market most exposed to AI memory — that is not conviction in either direction, it is positioning ahead of tonight's prints.
- If
- Seoul holds the gain into its close and the Korean memory ADRs carry it into New York
- Why
- whipsaw of this size in the most crowded corner of the AI build-out means the marginal holder has stopped trusting the trend; the next durable move likely needs a fundamental trigger — which is exactly what tonight delivers
- Then
- Rubin 100 holds SK Hynix, Samsung and the rest of the memory layer
- Trade the Look AI Cycle 2030 — capex, opex, applications: the three-phase AI cycle, run as a wikifolio. See the wikifolio →
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Five prints after tonight's close — Tesla, Meta, IBM, SAP, Lam Research
Calendar- What
- The heaviest reporting night of the quarter so far. Meta reports with consensus revenue near $63.3B and EPS near $6.54 — the direct read on AI capital spending, where guidance for 2027 will matter more than the quarter. Tesla reports with consensus revenue near $28.1B and EPS near $0.45, the biggest name in Discretionary, the week's leading sector. IBM and SAP are the enterprise-AI demand read — AI bookings and backlog language. Lam Research is the equipment tell, falling 3.2% to 263.45 on Tuesday into its own print. Tuesday's positioning into the night was split: IBM +2.3% to 241.92 and SAP +1.3% to 228.98 were bought; Meta −1.6% to 694.25 and Lam −3.2% were sold; Tesla +1.5% to 373.71 rode the Discretionary tape.
- If
- Meta's revenue or its spending guidance surprises materially in either direction
- Why
- Meta is the single largest buyer-side read on the AI build-out — a confident capex guide contradicts the two-week sell-off in the infrastructure names, a cautious one confirms it
- Then
- IBM's AI services commentary and Lam's memory-equipment guide are the secondary reads; all five set after-hours direction into Thursday's open
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