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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — chart, structure and Closelooknet read

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The desk on TSM

What this diary said about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, what it holds and what would change its view — in its own words, dated. Investment diary, not advice.

What we hold

BookPositionSinceResult
Global Tech 50 50.12 shares · average entry $68.75 — +586.9%
AI Buildout 45.09 shares · average entry $364.91 — +29.4%
Hypergrowth 50.19 shares · average entry $364.99 — +29.4%
AI Cycle 2030 (wikifolio) ↗ 6 shares · average entry €342.44 — —
Closelooknet (wikifolio) ↗ 24 shares · average entry €352.00 — —

Model books as of 7 Oct 2026; wikifolio positions from the official wikifolio data, entries in euros. Results are unrealised, before any exit. A record of what the diary does, not a recommendation to do the same.

What would change our view

12 months from now
Higher, in our view. Demand is supply-constrained and visible in monthly revenue running 40–50% above last year; the leading edge has no second source and the packaging bottleneck is booked into 2027; the stock trades under 20 times forward earnings for that growth; and the ten-week correction has resolved into an ascending triangle at its apex inside an intact five-year channel. The measured objectives are the June record at $477.57, then the channel’s upper boundary near $510–530 and rising toward $600 over the window. A diary view, not advice.
The next few weeks
The coil resolves. A weekly close above $440 — through the descending line, the $435 horizontal and the 8 September high close of $439 — confirms the breakout and puts the June high in play into the mid-October print. A close below $408 breaks the higher-low sequence and voids the setup; the stock would then be trading the alternative count toward the $374.67 July low, and we would say so.

From the Chart Pick of 11 Sept 2026, scored publicly.

Our record on TSM

Every scored call, pick and trade this diary has made on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, with the outcome where it is known.

Charts from the desk on TSM

The charts this diary drew or picked on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, as published — each dated and linked to the piece that explains it.

Signals for this name

Every Closelooknet reading that exists for TSM, from the same nightly bakes the boards use. Research diary readings, not advice.

Versus its index Rubin Build-Out 100 — the name, its sleeve and the index over day, week and month

Versus its index

The name against its Closelooknet index and its own sleeve — equal-weight, nightly closes.

Rubin Build-Out 100 · as of 2026-10-06

DayWeekMonth3 months
TSM−0.7%+5.5%+12.4%+10.4%
Foundry & Integration−0.1%+3.9%+14.7%—
Rubin Build-Out 100+0.8%+7.0%+11.0%—

Against the index: 1.5 pts behind on the week, 1.4 pts ahead on the month; against its Foundry & Integration sleeve 2.3 pts behind on the month.

Returns from the index workers’ nightly closes; equal-weight sleeves. A relative reading from the research diary, not advice.

Mentioned on Closelooknet 31 pieces · newest: Daily Pulse, “AI Build-Out — Spotting the 2027 Slowdown” (2026-10-07)

Mentioned on Closelooknet

Where TSM appears in the diary — 31 pieces, newest first. Every link is our own writing.

Go deeper

Long reads

101 and glossary

Dailies

Weather around the name 3 macro readings: Money Temperature, Factor regime, Sovereign pressure

The weather around this name

Macro readings that apply by membership — the regime, the factor tape, the sector cell, the funding backdrop.

  • Money Temperature Composite 61/100 · S&P 500 fund at 75, bullish alignedEight instruments scored on position, momentum, volume, volatility and fragility — the regime every name trades inside. Temperature lab → 2026-10-06
  • Factor regime Momentum leading — risk appetite buildingMomentum against low volatility (SPMO / SPLV): above its 50-day trend, 98th percentile of the window, +5.7% over 20 sessions. Factor regime → 2026-10-06
  • Sovereign pressure Index 0.74 · up 0.17 over 21 sessionsG7 long-end yields, 10s30s and the slope — the funding weather for every balance sheet on this site. Sovereign pressure → 2026-10-06
How it trades on rate days beta 0.63 to TLT · on the worst bond days it fell more than the market

How it trades on rate days

How TSM has moved when long-dated Treasury yields rise — measured against TLT, the 20+ year Treasury fund.

  • Beta to long bonds, 1 year 0.63 — moves strongly with bonds for every 1% move in TLT (20+ year Treasuries), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing moved 0.63% on average · correlation 0.15 · higher than 65% of US names
  • Beta, last 3 months 0.52 about the same as over the year
  • On the 10 worst bond days −1.11% on average against −0.74% for the S&P 500 the 10 sessions of the past year in which TLT fell most, i.e. long yields rose most
  • Latest of those days +1.03% TLT −1.29% that day 2026-09-24

Daily total returns from the adjusted price series; a TLT down day is a day long yields rose. Beta = the average move of the name for a 1% move in TLT. Past sensitivity, not a forecast. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

Who it is priced against Foundries · 5 names with week and year-to-date

Peer group

Foundries

Curated competitor set — who the market prices this name against, not just who shares its sector.

Compared against TSM on the nightly bakes; the Peers tab ranks the cohort on the Closelooknet scores where it exists.

Company snapshot — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

TSM in five paragraphs: what it makes and sells, where it sits in the Closelooknet stack, who it is priced against, why we track it, what we watch. Research diary, not advice.

What it does
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing builds integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices to order for the companies that design them, rather than selling chips under its own brand. It runs wafer fabrication across several process types, plus packaging, testing and mask-making, and its output ends up in high-performance computing, smartphones, connected devices, cars and consumer electronics. It is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Where it sits in the stack
In our index, the Rubin Build-Out 100, TSM sits in Layer 2, Fabrication, within the Foundry & Integration sleeve — the group that turns finished chip designs into working dies. This sleeve is where capacity itself is the binding constraint on the build-out, since a design cannot ship faster than a foundry slot allows; TSM is the largest customer relationship for nearly every fabless chip designer in the stack.
Who it is priced against
Closelooknet's peer group for TSM is built from Foundries: Intel, Samsung Electronics, Globalfoundries and United Microelectronics, the names the market prices it against on capacity and process node.
Why Closelooknet tracks it
TSM is a constituent of the Rubin Build-Out 100 and carries a Closelooknet score across three modules, with quality reading strongest and momentum weakest. The diary has returned to it repeatedly across dossiers and reports that frame it as the constrained point in the chip supply chain.
What the diary watches
The diary watches utilisation on the newest process nodes and whether packaging capacity keeps pace with demand for the AI accelerators that depend on it, since either would change how tight the constraint reads.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) trades on US exchanges in Taiwan, and sits in Layer 2 of the build-out stack. Constituent of Rubin Build-Out 100.

Written from the company’s public profile and Closelooknet’s own readings, 2026-09-17. Descriptive, refreshed with the registry; corrections welcome via the imprint. closelook.net is an investment research diary — market structure, index membership and scores are our own readings, not investment advice. Related: TSM news on the tape · index compare · sector dispersion · scanner.

The Street on this name 2 analyst actions on the wire · latest: price target by Stifel, 2026-09-01

The Street on this name

Analyst actions and the latest print for TSM from the Closelooknet wires — third-party opinions on the record, not our readings.

  • Price target Stifel — target 515 Target set to $515 (+24.4% to spot) 2026-09-01
  • Initiation UBS — at Buy Initiated to Buy from Buy 2026-09-01

2 actions on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 1 initiation, 1 target change. Analyst wire → · Earnings wire →

Dividends and capital return trailing yield 0.75%, quarterly · last 1.11 USD on 2026-09-16

Dividends and capital return

What TSM pays out and buys back — distributions read from the price series, money terms from the filings.

  • Trailing 12 months 3.61 USD per share · a 0.75% yield on the 2026-10-06 close 4 distributions, paid quarterly 2026-10-06
  • Change on the year +52.2% against the prior twelve months prior twelve months 2.37 USD per share
  • Last distribution 1.11 USD per share as the price series records it, within days of the ex-date 2026-09-16
  • By calendar year 2023: 0.47 USD (partial) · 2024: 1.97 USD · 2025: 2.68 USD · 2026: 2.81 USD to date first distribution recorded in the three-year window: 2023-12-14

Per-share amounts are derived from the adjusted price series in the listing currency, so dates sit within days of the ex-date; filing figures come from the fundamentals feed for the last reported fiscal year. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-10-07

Quick answers

What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing trades as TSM on the US exchange (Taiwan) in the Closelooknet research universe, as of the registry build of 2026-10-07.

Is TSM in a Closelooknet index?

Yes — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is a constituent of Rubin Build-Out 100, as of 2026-10-07.

What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's earnings print record?

Across the 10 prints Closelooknet covers, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing beat EPS estimates 9 times and revenue estimates 10 times; the three-day reactions split 2 up, 5 flat and 3 down (moves beyond ±3%), as of the 2026-07-16 card. The full print-record card carries the per-print history.

Where does TSM trade against its moving averages?

New 52-week high: At a fresh 52-week high, up 2.8% on the day. As of 2026-10-05 — a technical state from the nightly Closelooknet bake, not advice. The Technical tab carries the full row.

How is TSM doing against its Closelooknet index?

Over the past month Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is +12.4% against +11.0% for the Rubin Build-Out 100 — 1.4 points ahead of its index, as of 2026-10-06. Its Foundry & Integration sleeve is +14.7% over the same month. The “Versus its index” table on this page carries the day, the week and the month for the name, its sleeve and the index.

How does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing compare with its peers?

Against its peer group (Foundries), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) sits 0.3% below its 52-week high, 13.9% above its 50-day average; Intel Corporation (INTC) is 18.4% below, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930.KS) is 27.4% below, Globalfoundries Inc (GFS) is 47.5% below. Put any of them next to TSM in the chart grid (2×1 or 2×2) and the page lays the companies side by side: performance, trend, valuation, margins and our money-flow reading.

How does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing trade when bond yields rise?

Over the past year Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing had a beta of 0.63 to TLT, the long-dated Treasury fund — it moves strongly with bonds, higher than 65% of US names. On the 10 sessions in which long bonds fell most it moved −1.11% on average, against −0.74% for the S&P 500. The "How it trades on rate days" block on this page carries the lines.

Where has Closelooknet written about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing appears in 31 Closelooknet pieces, most recently Daily Pulse: AI Build-Out — Spotting the 2027 Slowdown (2026-10-07); Midday 10: Stocks — broadly lower after the records: Russell 2000 −1.4%, power and cooling names sold, Penguin +15.3% (2026-10-07); Morning 10: Nasdaq — record close at 27,477 while the chip funds sit 5–15% below their June peaks (2026-10-06). What Closelooknet said most recently: How we hold it TSM is a constituent of the Rubin Build-Out 100 ; the print record carries its reaction history, and the stock page the live structure. (Report, 2026-08-13). The "Mentioned on Closelooknet" block on this page lists the long reads, the reference entries and the dailies that name it.

Does Closelooknet hold Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing?

Yes — Global Tech 50: 50.12 shares · average entry $68.75, +586.9% unrealised; AI Buildout: 45.09 shares · average entry $364.91, +29.4% unrealised; Hypergrowth: 50.19 shares · average entry $364.99, +29.4% unrealised; AI Cycle 2030 (wikifolio): 6 shares · average entry €342.44; Closelooknet (wikifolio): 24 shares · average entry €352.00. A record of what the diary does, not a recommendation to do the same.

What would change Closelooknet's view on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing?

12 months from now: Higher, in our view. Demand is supply-constrained and visible in monthly revenue running 40–50% above last year; the leading edge has no second source and the packaging bottleneck is booked into 2027; the stock trades under 20 times forward earnings for that growth; and the ten-week correction has resolved into an ascending triangle at its apex inside an intact five-year channel. The measured objectives are the June record at $477.57, then the channel’s upper boundary near $510–530 and rising toward $600 over the window. A diary view, not advice. The next few weeks: The coil resolves. A weekly close above $440 — through the descending line, the $435 horizontal and the 8 September high close of $439 — confirms the breakout and puts the June high in play into the mid-October print. A close below $408 breaks the higher-low sequence and voids the setup; the stock would then be trading the alternative count toward the $374.67 July low, and we would say so. From the Chart Pick of 2026-09-11, scored publicly.

What does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing do?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing builds integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices to order for the companies that design them, rather than selling chips under its own brand. It runs wafer fabrication across several process types, plus packaging, testing and mask-making, and its output ends up in high-performance computing, smartphones, connected devices, cars and consumer electronics. It is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan. Closelooknet's peer group for TSM is built from Foundries: Intel, Samsung Electronics, Globalfoundries and United Microelectronics, the names the market prices it against on capacity and process node.

Where does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing sit in the AI build-out?

In our index, the Rubin Build-Out 100, TSM sits in Layer 2, Fabrication, within the Foundry & Integration sleeve — the group that turns finished chip designs into working dies. This sleeve is where capacity itself is the binding constraint on the build-out, since a design cannot ship faster than a foundry slot allows; TSM is the largest customer relationship for nearly every fabless chip designer in the stack. TSM is a constituent of the Rubin Build-Out 100 and carries a Closelooknet score across three modules, with quality reading strongest and momentum weakest. The diary has returned to it repeatedly across dossiers and reports that frame it as the constrained point in the chip supply chain.

Does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing pay a dividend?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing has paid 3.61 USD per share over the last twelve months, paid quarterly, a trailing yield of 0.75% on the 2026-10-06 close; the last distribution recorded in the price series was 1.11 USD on 2026-09-16. The "Dividends and capital return" block on this page carries the lines.

What has Wall Street done on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing recently?

The most recent analyst action on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing on the Closelooknet wire is a price target by Stifel on 2026-09-01 (target 515). 2 actions on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 1 initiation, 1 target change. Analyst actions are third-party opinions recorded by the wire, not Closelooknet readings. The “The Street on this name” block on this page lists the moves; the full feeds are the analyst wire and the earnings wire.

What does this page show?

A live price chart with SMA overlays and drawing tools for TSM, performance metrics, index-membership context and the Closelooknet structure read — an investment research diary view, not investment advice.

Related in the Closelooknet universe

same Closelooknet index seat first, then Semiconductors. Scored names rank on their Closelooknet score; names without one rank on trend state — above or below their 50- and 200-day averages — never on a score they do not carry.