SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD) — Technical state

Long reads

• Bitcoin and Gold — Cointegration as Regime, Not StateDossier · $29 · 28 Apr 2026For Gold, we use the GLD ETF as a tradable proxy with longer reliable history than spot gold contracts.
• Magnificent Seven — Without Tesla, the Six Are Beating the MarketWeekly Signal · 27 Sept 2026
• Bitcoin — New Life for the Coins and the StocksWeekly Signal · 20 Sept 20263 · Bitcoin against gold and Treasuries — the hike test Bitcoin, gold (GLD) and 7–10-year Treasuries (IEF), daily closes rebased to 100 on Sep 19, 2025.
• Software vs Semis — The Axis TurnedWeekly Signal · 23 Aug 2026Gold over US equities, GLD / SPY, three years.
• AI Winners — The Punished Led the WeekWeekly Signal · 9 Aug 2026Last Sunday's signal sat both hedges on their decision lines: a break of 370 on GLD was to open the road to 320, and 60,000 was bitcoin's floor to hold.
• Gold and Bitcoin — The Hedges Bear No InterestWeekly Signal · 2 Aug 2026GLD closed 371.54 — a dollar and a half above the support that matters: a break of 370 opens the road to 320.
• Gold's Buyer Base Has ChangedWeekly Signal · 8 Jun 2026Stance Constructive · rule-based GLD close 393.04 · -0.81% Battleground ~395 · reclaim 400 Next support ~360 Gold — the buyer base has changed The same scarcity-and-debasement crowd that carried Bitcoin…
• Gold: Not What It Used to BeStrategy · 1 Jun 2026As of June 1, 2026, gold may have seen a double bottom, and as long as the $400–410 level in the GLD ETF holds, another test of the $450 level seems likely.

101 and glossary

• Cascade Tracker: The 5-Domino Model of Regime Breakdown101
• Cointegration: When the Rules of the Game Change101The SPY/GLD relationship, the equity-bond correlation, the gold-dollar inverse — these are the structural assumptions that underpin portfolio construction.
• Hurst Exponent: Persistence, Mean-Reversion, or Random Walk101For a pair like SPY-GLD, the spread's Hurst tells you whether the current market is treating the relationship as a mean-reverting equilibrium (healthy) or as a trending divergence (breaking).
• Money Temperature: Measuring Regime Intensity, Not Predicting Direction101Four pairs, each representing a structural axis of capital allocation: SPY/QQQ (risk appetite, with QQQ isolating the AI speculation premium), TLT/UUP (duration and dollar — the rate regime), GLD/BTC-USD (de-dollarization channels …
• Stack Flip: When Price Crosses the 200-Day Moving Average101Ignoring flips in major macro instruments (SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD) means missing the moments when regimes visibly change.

Dailies

• Stocks — broadly lower after the records: Russell 2000 −1.4%, power and cooling names sold, Penguin +15.3%Midday 10 · 7 Oct 2026
• Storage — Seagate −9.2%, Western Digital −6.9% on a record day for the S&P 500 and the NasdaqMorning 10 · 7 Oct 2026The gold fund GLD gained 0.7% to 382.27.
• Nasdaq — record close at 27,477 while the chip funds sit 5–15% below their June peaksMorning 10 · 6 Oct 2026
• S&P 500 — record high as Marvell jumps 7.6% on its investor day; chip-machine makers slideMidday 10 · 6 Oct 2026
• Asia — Nikkei back near 70,000, Taiwan +2.4%; euro at a 17-month low, US futures slightly lowerMorning 10 · 5 Oct 2026
• Brazil — stocks jump 13% after Bolsonaro leads round one; US 10-year hits 5.35%, stocks rise anywayMidday 10 · 5 Oct 2026
• Jobs day — futures +0.3% before payrolls; Nike −8.7% after hours, Accenture holds +15.8%Morning 10 · 2 Oct 2026
• Markets — Nasdaq +1.5% before the open even as TLT breaks 78; Tokyo +3.3% on Micron's record quarterMorning 10 · 1 Oct 2026Gold slipped 0.54% (GLD 380.84, -3.1% on the week) and silver 1.75% (SLV 54.51, -6.3%).