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Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — chart, structure and Closelooknet read

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The desk on MSFT

What this diary said about Microsoft Corporation, what it holds and what would change its view — in its own words, dated. Investment diary, not advice.

What we said

What we hold

BookPositionSinceResult
AI Cycle 2030 (wikifolio) ↗ 5 shares · average entry €432.35 — —

Model books as of the latest close; wikifolio positions from the official wikifolio data, entries in euros. Results are unrealised, before any exit. A record of what the diary does, not a recommendation to do the same.

Our record on MSFT

Every scored call, pick and trade this diary has made on Microsoft Corporation, with the outcome where it is known.

Charts from the desk on MSFT

The charts this diary drew or picked on Microsoft Corporation, as published — each dated and linked to the piece that explains it.

Signals for this name

Every Closelooknet reading that exists for MSFT, from the same nightly bakes the boards use. Research diary readings, not advice.

Versus its index Agentic Winners 40 — the name, its sleeve and the index over day, week and month

Versus its index

The name against its Closelooknet index and its own sleeve — equal-weight, nightly closes.

Agentic Winners 40 · as of 2026-10-06

DayWeekMonth3 months
MSFT+0.8%+4.0%+5.9%+38.1%
Megacap Gateway+0.5%+2.7%+6.0%—
Agentic Winners 40+0.2%+3.3%−2.8%—

Against the index: 0.7 pts ahead on the week, 8.7 pts ahead on the month; against its Megacap Gateway sleeve 0.1 pts behind on the month.

Returns from the index workers’ nightly closes; equal-weight sleeves. A relative reading from the research diary, not advice.

Mentioned on Closelooknet 42 pieces · newest: Midday 10, “Stocks — broadly lower after the records: Russell 2000 −1.4%, power and cooling names sold, Penguin +15.3%” (2026-10-07)

Mentioned on Closelooknet

Where MSFT appears in the diary — 42 pieces, newest first. Every link is our own writing.

Go deeper

Long reads

101 and glossary

Dailies

Weather around the name 4 macro readings: Money Temperature, Factor regime, Sector × region …

The weather around this name

Macro readings that apply by membership — the regime, the factor tape, the sector cell, the funding backdrop.

  • Money Temperature Composite 61/100 · S&P 500 fund at 75, bullish alignedEight instruments scored on position, momentum, volume, volatility and fragility — the regime every name trades inside. Temperature lab → 2026-10-06
  • Factor regime Momentum leading — risk appetite buildingMomentum against low volatility (SPMO / SPLV): above its 50-day trend, 98th percentile of the window, +5.7% over 20 sessions. Factor regime → 2026-10-06
  • Sector × region Technology in US: +3.9% week · +8.0% month · +11.5% quarter · +49.8% yearThe Sector Engine cell this name lives in, from XLK.US; the 11 × 4 matrix shows where its sector is being bought and where it is being sold. Sector Engine → 2026-10-06
  • Sovereign pressure Index 0.74 · up 0.17 over 21 sessionsG7 long-end yields, 10s30s and the slope — the funding weather for every balance sheet on this site. Sovereign pressure → 2026-10-06
How it trades on rate days beta 0.06 to TLT · on the worst bond days it held up better than the market

How it trades on rate days

How MSFT has moved when long-dated Treasury yields rise — measured against TLT, the 20+ year Treasury fund.

  • Beta to long bonds, 1 year 0.06 — shows only a loose link to bond moves for every 1% move in TLT (20+ year Treasuries), Microsoft Corporation moved 0.06% on average · correlation 0.02 · higher than 12% of US names
  • Beta, last 3 months 0.54 more rate-sensitive lately than over the year
  • On the 10 worst bond days −0.06% on average against −0.74% for the S&P 500 the 10 sessions of the past year in which TLT fell most, i.e. long yields rose most
  • Latest of those days −0.53% TLT −1.29% that day 2026-09-24

Daily total returns from the adjusted price series; a TLT down day is a day long yields rose. Beta = the average move of the name for a 1% move in TLT. Past sensitivity, not a forecast. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

Who it is priced against Hyperscalers and enterprise platforms · 5 names with week and year-to-date

Peer group

Hyperscalers and enterprise platforms

Curated competitor set — who the market prices this name against, not just who shares its sector.

Compared against MSFT on the nightly bakes; the Peers tab ranks the cohort on the Closelooknet scores where it exists.

Company snapshot — Microsoft Corporation

MSFT in five paragraphs: what it makes and sells, where it sits in the Closelooknet stack, who it is priced against, why we track it, what we watch. Research diary, not advice.

What it does
Microsoft builds software and cloud services for individuals and businesses. Its Productivity and Business Processes unit sells Microsoft 365, Teams, LinkedIn and Dynamics 365; its Intelligent Cloud unit runs Azure and server products; its More Personal Computing unit covers Windows, Surface devices, Xbox and search advertising through Bing and Copilot. It is based in Redmond, United States.
Where it sits in the stack
Microsoft carries no Rubin or Halo seat in the diary's build-out stack, so it sits within our broader Technology universe rather than a hardware layer. It appears in the Agentic Winners 40, a sleeve tracking large software names adapting to AI copilots and agents.
Who it is priced against
Closelooknet's peer group calls this the hyperscaler and enterprise-platform set — Amazon, Alphabet, Oracle, Salesforce and ServiceNow, priced on cloud and software scale rather than sector alone. Apple is the added name the market often compares it with.
Why Closelooknet tracks it
Microsoft sits in the Agentic Winners 40, the Nasdaq-100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Its Closelooknet score runs strongest on quality and weakest on valuation. The diary names it a bellwether whose price action often leads sector sentiment.
What the diary watches
The diary watches how the Copilot and 365 bundle performs against rival agentic software as enterprise adoption of AI tools becomes clearer.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) trades on US exchanges, classified under Technology. Constituent of Agentic Winners 40.

The Closelooknet company score reads 58/100 composite (momentum 87, quality 85, valuation 30) across 7 modules — the full breakdown, chart structure and analog history load live above.

Written from the company’s public profile and Closelooknet’s own readings, 2026-09-17. Descriptive, refreshed with the registry; corrections welcome via the imprint. closelook.net is an investment research diary — market structure, index membership and scores are our own readings, not investment advice. Related: MSFT news on the tape · index compare · sector dispersion · scanner.

The Street on this name 19 analyst actions on the wire · latest: price target by Scotiabank, 2026-10-05

The Street on this name

Analyst actions and the latest print for MSFT from the Closelooknet wires — third-party opinions on the record, not our readings.

  • Price target Scotiabank — target 615 from 510 Target raised to $615 from $510 (+16.8% to spot) 2026-10-05
  • Downgrade Morgan Stanley — Overweight → Negative Downgraded to Negative from Overweight 2026-10-05
  • Upgrade Evercore ISI — Underperform → Outperform Upgraded to Outperform from Underperform 2026-10-05

19 actions on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 3 upgrades, 5 downgrades, 7 initiations, 4 target changes. Analyst wire → · Earnings wire →

Dividends and capital return trailing yield 0.69%, quarterly · buybacks 22.3 bn USD in FY2026

Dividends and capital return

What MSFT pays out and buys back — distributions read from the price series, money terms from the filings.

  • Trailing 12 months 3.64 USD per share · a 0.69% yield on the 2026-10-06 close 4 distributions, paid quarterly 2026-10-06
  • Change on the year +9.6% against the prior twelve months prior twelve months 3.32 USD per share
  • Last distribution 0.91 USD per share as the price series records it, within days of the ex-date 2026-08-20
  • By calendar year 2023: 0.75 USD (partial) · 2024: 3.08 USD · 2025: 3.40 USD · 2026: 2.73 USD to date first distribution recorded in the three-year window: 2023-11-15
  • Dividends paid, FY2026 26.4 bn USD 20% of earnings
  • Buybacks, FY2026 22.3 bn USD 0.6% of today's market value
  • Share count −0.2% in FY2026 12.4 bn USD of stock-based compensation in the year
  • Capital returned 48.7 bn USD · 73% of free cash flow dividends and buybacks together, against the year’s free cash flow

Per-share amounts are derived from the adjusted price series in the listing currency, so dates sit within days of the ex-date; filing figures come from the fundamentals feed for the last reported fiscal year. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-10-07

Quick answers

What is Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)?

Microsoft Corporation trades as MSFT on the US exchange (US) and is classified under Technology in the Closelooknet research universe, as of the registry build of 2026-10-07.

Is MSFT in a Closelooknet index?

Yes — Microsoft Corporation is a constituent of Agentic Winners 40, as of 2026-10-07.

What is Microsoft Corporation's Closelooknet composite score?

58 out of 100, with momentum 87, quality 85 and valuation 30 sub-scores, as of 2026-10-07. Scores are Closelooknet's own research readings, not ratings or investment advice.

What is Microsoft Corporation's earnings print record?

Across the 10 prints Closelooknet covers, Microsoft Corporation beat EPS estimates 10 times and revenue estimates 10 times; the three-day reactions split 2 up, 3 flat and 5 down (moves beyond ±3%), as of the 2026-07-23 card. The full print-record card carries the per-print history.

Where does MSFT trade against its moving averages?

Trending: Above its 20-, 50- and 200-day; consensus target sits +8.9% higher. As of 2026-10-05 — a technical state from the nightly Closelooknet bake, not advice. The Technical tab carries the full row.

How is MSFT doing against its Closelooknet index?

Over the past month Microsoft Corporation is +5.9% against −2.8% for the Agentic Winners 40 — 8.7 points ahead of its index, as of 2026-10-06. Its Megacap Gateway sleeve is +6.0% over the same month. The “Versus its index” table on this page carries the day, the week and the month for the name, its sleeve and the index.

How does Microsoft Corporation compare with its peers?

Against its peer group (Hyperscalers and enterprise platforms), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) sits 4.8% below its 52-week high, 7.1% above its 50-day average; Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) is 12.5% below, Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) is 15.2% below, Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is 58.2% below. Put any of them next to MSFT in the chart grid (2×1 or 2×2) and the page lays the companies side by side: performance, trend, valuation, margins and our money-flow reading.

How does Microsoft Corporation trade when bond yields rise?

Over the past year Microsoft Corporation had a beta of 0.06 to TLT, the long-dated Treasury fund — it shows only a loose link to bond moves, higher than 12% of US names. On the 10 sessions in which long bonds fell most it moved −0.06% on average, against −0.74% for the S&P 500. The "How it trades on rate days" block on this page carries the lines.

Where has Closelooknet written about Microsoft Corporation?

Microsoft Corporation appears in 42 Closelooknet pieces, most recently Midday 10: Stocks — broadly lower after the records: Russell 2000 −1.4%, power and cooling names sold, Penguin +15.3% (2026-10-07); Midday 10: S&P 500 — record high as Marvell jumps 7.6% on its investor day; chip-machine makers slide (2026-10-06); Morning 10: Jobs day — futures +0.3% before payrolls; Nike −8.7% after hours, Accenture holds +15.8% (2026-10-02). What Closelooknet said most recently: Megacaps mixed to lower: Meta −2.1% to $723.71, Tesla −1.3%, Alphabet −0.6%, Microsoft −0.4% (Midday 10, 2026-10-07). The "Mentioned on Closelooknet" block on this page lists the long reads, the reference entries and the dailies that name it.

Does Closelooknet hold Microsoft Corporation?

Yes — AI Cycle 2030 (wikifolio): 5 shares · average entry €432.35. A record of what the diary does, not a recommendation to do the same.

What does Microsoft Corporation do?

Microsoft builds software and cloud services for individuals and businesses. Its Productivity and Business Processes unit sells Microsoft 365, Teams, LinkedIn and Dynamics 365; its Intelligent Cloud unit runs Azure and server products; its More Personal Computing unit covers Windows, Surface devices, Xbox and search advertising through Bing and Copilot. It is based in Redmond, United States. Closelooknet's peer group calls this the hyperscaler and enterprise-platform set — Amazon, Alphabet, Oracle, Salesforce and ServiceNow, priced on cloud and software scale rather than sector alone. Apple is the added name the market often compares it with.

Where does Microsoft Corporation sit in the AI build-out?

Microsoft carries no Rubin or Halo seat in the diary's build-out stack, so it sits within our broader Technology universe rather than a hardware layer. It appears in the Agentic Winners 40, a sleeve tracking large software names adapting to AI copilots and agents. Microsoft sits in the Agentic Winners 40, the Nasdaq-100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Its Closelooknet score runs strongest on quality and weakest on valuation. The diary names it a bellwether whose price action often leads sector sentiment.

Does Microsoft Corporation pay a dividend?

Microsoft Corporation has paid 3.64 USD per share over the last twelve months, paid quarterly, a trailing yield of 0.69% on the 2026-10-06 close; the last distribution recorded in the price series was 0.91 USD on 2026-08-20. In fiscal 2026 the company paid 26.4 bn USD in dividends and bought back 22.3 bn USD of its own shares, 73% of that year’s free cash flow. The share count fell 0.2% over the fiscal year. The "Dividends and capital return" block on this page carries the lines.

What has Wall Street done on Microsoft Corporation recently?

The most recent analyst action on Microsoft Corporation on the Closelooknet wire is a price target by Scotiabank on 2026-10-05 (target 615 from 510). 19 actions on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 3 upgrades, 5 downgrades, 7 initiations, 4 target changes. Analyst actions are third-party opinions recorded by the wire, not Closelooknet readings. The “The Street on this name” block on this page lists the moves; the full feeds are the analyst wire and the earnings wire.

What does this page show?

A live price chart with SMA overlays and drawing tools for MSFT, performance metrics, index-membership context and the Closelooknet structure read — an investment research diary view, not investment advice.

Related in the Closelooknet universe

same Closelooknet index seat first, then Software - Infrastructure. Scored names rank on their Closelooknet score; names without one rank on trend state — above or below their 50- and 200-day averages — never on a score they do not carry.